フィッシャー on Significance Test

サルツブルグの本の中のフィッシャーの1929年の論文からの引用から引用：

"It is a common practice to judge a result significant, if it is of such a magnitude that it would have been produced by chance not more frequently than once in every twenty trials......but it does not mean that he allows himself to be deceived once in every twenty experiments......He should only claim that a phenomenon is experimentally demonstrable when he knows how to design an experiment so that it will rarely fail to give a significnt result."

フィッシャーは、有意な結果が出ても再現性がなければ余り意味がない、と考えていたらしい。きっと、社会科学での検定の使われ方を、苦々しく思っていたんだろうな。